US’s Final Chapter in Afghanistan: The Right Move or Moments Before Disaster?

Penulis: Fransisca Octaviani Panjaitan

“I am now the fourth president of the United States to preside over American Troops’ presence in Afghanistan. I will not pass this responsibility onto a fifth.” — President Joe Biden, 2021.

The statement signifies a new era of Afghanistan and the long-standing war that still prevails to this day. After 20 years of non-stop clashes between troops and the Taliban, September 11th of this year will mark the date where complete withdrawal will happen by a large number of US Troops and other personnel involved (Ryan and DeYoung, 2021). After years of meddling, the day finally came where the US steps back and let the government and people fight their fight. As expected, many people support this move, seeing that US policies have done nothing but even more damage to the nation and its problems, which is why withdrawal may allow the nation to prosper at its matters. However, the other side sees this as a dangerous decision as instability with the government and troops exists, fearing another civil war (DeCeccio, 2021). Within the multiple scenarios that exist, what would be the wisest decision, and will this be the end of the Afghan war?

Before looking upon current events, a peek at the past would give us a better understanding of the gravity of the situation. Before the events of 9/11 and the 20-year war, the US has stepped on Afghan soil way back during the 1970s (Taylor, 2014). As the US and Soviet were in a Cold War, Afghanistan became one place where their proxy war ensued. The Soviets supported the communist regime, and the US and its allies supporting the Mujahideen rebels. As history unfolds, the Soviets would then disengage from this situation, followed by the collapse of its regimes. With the Soviets gone, the US no longer had any interest to interfere further and stepped away from the time being. Without the center of peripheries within the land, the co-existing multiple tribal groups began to fight for dominance and power, surging a civil war. The chaos became a perfect breeding ground for the Taliban, an armed militant group, to take over the nation and ruled over its government (The Economist, 2020). 2001 rolled around, and the 9/11 tragedy happened, making the US declare a search for Osama Bin Laden, who was back then accused of being the mastermind behind the tragedy that left many in scars. Furthermore, it just so happens that he was being protected by the Taliban, causing the US to declare war.

The chapter of the intense fight between the two governments ended with the US successfully getting rid of the Taliban from the higher chairs; however, that was not its end. Upon stepping on foreign soil, the US had to help pay for the damage they have caused in the land, creating a new policy centered upon state rebuilding (The Economist, 2020). One of the most notable projects was building a ‘Ring Road’ connecting regions of tribes together. The plan seemed to be positively progressing until the US had other plans within Iraq and instead shifted its attention away from Afghanistan. Once again, the lack of presence became a breeding ground for the Taliban to take over. Thus, when the US did realize its mistake, it could no longer prevent the war from escalating to new heights, as the Ring Road project now became the ground of bombs and deaths, and an escalation of funding needed to ensure security.

Now, what would all of this mean to the withdrawal of the US? The answer is quite simple; it is that the US lost a long time ago. Their withdrawal was delayed from time to time; however, they have lost their grip on the land. While their presence has aided troops with training, women with rights, even after 20 years, no progress was made with the core issue and core reason for their existence within the region (Gardner, 2021). Fighting against the Taliban was simply a matter of time, time for them to stop.

Trump’s regime took notice of that situation and thus decided to negotiate with the Taliban to reach a consensus, one that included the US’s withdrawal and an agreement for the Taliban to stop the violence. According to local testimonies, there has been a lack of fulfillment towards that agreement by the Taliban (Fighting erupts in Afghanistan after US pullout deadline, 2021). The still-existing attacks have caused worries- especially within the Afghanistan troop — on how they will deal with them, most likely large amounts of attack coming. Outcomes of this situation could happen in two sets. The first one is that the Afghanistan government will get their act together and fight for its people. The second one, backed by a history of corrupt officials, is where Afghanistan collapses.

Of course, the rise of concerns about terrorism cannot be dismissed within the US stepping out of a region that is familiar with such movements. Thus, the months of delay from May 1st to September 11th became a time stamp on the US to negotiate, aiming to reach a peace deal of some sort with the Taliban (Ward, 2021). The outcome of this is unclear; whether these deals can prevent the worse from happening or if it is simply papers and talks.

When asking the question if this is a wise move from the US, there will be no clear-cut answer as the acts of these actors are unpredictable. One thing is for sure; however, this choice is a choice of constant or change, on whether the war stretches on as it has for years or if it changes. The US has lost; it is no longer a matter of the US and what they can do, but rather, what other actors decide to do for the country’s fate. While causing a large sum of worry, the Taliban have their interests that the US can satisfy. The refugee crisis and government incompetencies lay questionable; however, there is not much that solve it. It is a matter of time, and preparations, to see what the future holds for Afghanistan’s new era.

References

Aljazeera.com. 2021. Fighting erupts in Afghanistan after US pullout deadline. [online] Available at: <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/4/taliban-launches-afghanistan-offensive-after-us-pullout-deadline>.

DeCeccio, E., 2021. Former NATO commander worries U.S. troop pullout from Afghanistan ‘will cause a collapse’. [online] CNBC. Available at: <https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/us-troop-pullout-from-afghanistan-could-cause-collapse-ex-nato-commander-says.html>.

Gardner, F., 2021. 20 years in Afghanistan: Was it worth it?. [online] BBC News. Available at: <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56770570>.

Ryan, M. and DeYoung, K., 2021. Biden will withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan by Sept. 11, 2021. [online] The Washington Post. Available at: <https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/biden-us-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan/2021/04/13/918c3cae-9beb-11eb-8a83-3bc1fa69c2e8_story.html>.

Taylor, A., 2014. The Soviet War in Afghanistan, 1979–1989. [online] The Atlantic. Available at: <https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/08/the-soviet-war-in-afghanistan-1979-1989/100786/>.

The Economist, 2020. Afghanistan: why the Taliban can’t be defeated | The Economist. [video] Available at: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEtYN70okug>.

Ward, A., 2021. The best case for withdrawing all US troops from Afghanistan. [online] Vox. Available at: <https://www.vox.com/22327600/afghanistan-troop-withdrawal-biden-kolenda-leave>.