The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty on COP28: More than a Summit, It’s a Call to Action.

Written by: Muhammad Raafi

After decades of climate negotiations, fossil fuels have finally been dragged center stage. Despite this, many governments still give the green light to approve new coal, oil, and gas projects. A Special Report (2018) issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) advised reducing carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 to hold global temperature rise below 1.5 °C, but global demand for coal, oil, and gas has continued to grow. Newell and Simms (2018) noted that fossil fuels accounted for 81% of energy use in 2018, with forecasts, including those by the International Energy Agency, anticipating more significant demand in future decades. The Special Report concluded that only “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” can deliver the globally agreed target. As necessary as it is, the Paris Agreement (2015) does not reference fossil fuels once and has failed to constrain production. Therefore, a complementary agreement is needed. It is crystal clear: We now need a concrete, binding plan to end the expansion of new coal, oil, and gas projects and manage a global transition away from fossil fuels. To protect people from the threat of fossil fuels to our climate, health, and future, a growing bloc of countries is joining forces at COP28 to seek a negotiating mandate for a Fossil Fuel Treaty.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative is a civil society campaign to create a treaty to stop fossil fuel exploration and expansion and phase out existing production in line with the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement while supporting a just transition to renewable energy. In the 27 years the UNFCCC has held climate negotiations, oil, gas, and coal have not been mentioned in the final text until 2022, and only then due to leadership from Vanuatu and Tuvalu (Carrington, 2022). A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty is needed to complement that gap because, as reported by the United Nations Environment Programme (2019), fossil fuel companies and our governments have plans to produce 110 percent more fossil fuels by 2030 than what is compatible with humanity being able to survive and manage the impacts of climate change (Fossil Fuel Treaty, n.d.).

At COP28 in Dubai, more than 80 countries are pushing for a broader pact to phase out all CO2-emitting fossil fuels. “The ‘phase out’ is a tool to reach the goal. And the goal is an energy system with no emissions,” Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barthe Eide told Reuters at COP28 (Abnett & Witners, 2023). This is why the notion of a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty is a significant momentum. Over 3,000 scientists and academics, 101 Nobel laureates, the World Health Organisation and hundreds of health professionals, thousands of religious institutions, a growing number of Indigenous organizations and youth activists, more than 80 cities and subnational governments, and 550 Parliamentarians across the world, particularly from the Global South aims to compliment other movements tactics such as divestment, debt relief, and fossil fuel bans (Newell & Simms, 2019). The declaration recognized the emergency to stop the oil and gas industry expansion to achieve the Paris climate goals. It also called for action to be taken first by countries having benefited the most from fossil fuel extraction, having thus a historical responsibility for the climate crisis, but being also the best positioned in terms of capacity to take concrete climate action for a global transition away from fossil fuel production. The declaration stated: “It is the urgent responsibility and moral obligation of wealthy fossil fuel producers to lead in putting an end to fossil fuel development and to manage the decline of existing production.”.

A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty is one crucial way to act meaningfully on climate emergency motions. Over the last two years, more than 70 cities have endorsed the Treaty proposal, with campaigns launching climate emergency motions on many others to join them, but the fossil fuel industry has yet to get the message. “Their expansion plans are moving the world opposite from where we need to go,” said Tzeporah Berman, chair of the initiative, at The Guardian. Pushing for a Treaty is one fundamental way to “put meat on the bones” of a climate emergency motion, signaling to national governments that their economic and energy plans must align with science. Our planet and future hangs in the balance. It is time for governments to act commensurate with the problem and stop fueling the fire. An essential step would be joining the countries seeking a mandate to negotiate a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.

References

Abnett, K., & Withers, A. (2023). COP28: Will There be an Agreement to Phase Out Fossil Fuels? Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/world-divided-cop28-over-whether-end-fossil-fuel-era-2023-12-06/

Carrington, D. (2022). What is The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/11/what-is-the-fossil-fuel-non-proliferation-treaty

Fossil Fuel Treaty. (n.d.). History. The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. https://fossilfueltreaty.org/history

IPCC. (2018). Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C Approved by Governments. Ipcc.ch; IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/

Newell, P., & Simms, A. (2018). A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty . https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/371_Talanoa%20dialogue%20submission%2029-10-18.pdf

Newell, P., & Simms, A. (2019). Towards a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. Climate Policy, 20(8), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1636759

UNEP. (2019). Production Gap Report 2019. UNEP — UN Environment Programme. https://www.unep.org/resources/report/production-gap-report-2019