Tension Rises, Evolving Dynamics: Iran’s Strikes and Israel’s Response, What is Happening?

Written by Jefferson Davids Soasa

On April 13, 2024, a sudden massive attack launching over 300 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles from Iran to Israel raised the tension between the two countries (Berg, 2024). Some people argue that it was to retaliate the April 1 Israeli bombing of Iran’s embassy in Damascus that killed some Iranian officers (Tanyos et al., 2024). However, others also see it as a spillover of the Israel-Hamas war marking the first direct attack on Israel by Iran since the beginning of their proxy war McKernan et al., 2024). However, a counterattack by Israel was launched by carrying out a military strike against Iran on April 19, 2024. Moreover, Israel and its biggest ally, the United States of America (USA), remained silent about this event, while Iran stands on the insignificance of the event. Therefore, what is the possible reason behind this event and what are the future predictions?

If we look back at the past, Israel’s sudden attack on the Iranian consulate has brought up many discussions. An analyst at SWP Berlin, Hamidreza Azizi, on Aljazeera highlights two possible scenarios behind the attack. Firstly, it could be that the Israeli strike was carried out without considering the consequences (Cordall, 2024). Nevertheless, the strike also can be a calculated attempt to entice Iran into a regional conflict and divert the attention of the USA and Western allies from Israel’s Gaza war to the regional nemesis, Iran (Cordall, 2024). However, the Israeli’s foundation reason is apparent: to draw the attention of the USA and other Western allies back into the Middle East. This action by Benjamin Netanyahu is arguably not only because of Israel’s interest, but also its domestic pressures on Netanyahu. In fact, surveys show a declining reputation for Netanyahu, and the Hamas attacks on October 7 have also worsened the situation (Dagres, 2024). Furthermore, Netanyahu’s decision, which is challenged both domestically and internationally, determines Western countries’ sympathy. In addition, in an attempt to make up his power, Netanyahu has seized every chance, including to challenge other regional powers, to put himself at the center of a wave of nationalism that has made many Israelis unwilling to demand an end to the conflict.

However, these consecutive attacks by both countries have escalated the situation — with Iran’s officials downplayed and even mocked the consequences of the attack. Israel, which tries to gain the attention of Westerners, is arguably faced with an open confrontation by a power that has remained silent this entire time. While Iran has started to show its power and gradually leave its strategic patience — a strategy of holding off on taking direct actions in response to any provocations — the region is predicted to have no security relief in the future. Moreover, the proxy networks of Iran, including Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis of Yemen, will tend to participate in insulating the number of Palestinian casualties by following the Iranian’s actions. So, will the shifting situation cause the start of the region-wide war or just an attempt to challenge the dynamics of the region?

References

Berg, R. (2024, April 13). Israel on high alert after unprecedented Iranian attack. Www.bbc.com. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053

Cordall, S. S. (2024, April 14). What does Israel want to do after Iran’s drone and missile attacks? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/14/what-does-israel-want-to-do-after-irans-drone-and-missile-attacks

Dagres, H. (2024, March 6). Netanyahu might be losing ground, but his politics still resonate with most Israelis. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/israel-gaza-war-netanyahu-polling/

McKernan, B., Graham-Harrison, E., Borger, J., & Beaumont, P. (2024, April 14). Iran launches hundreds of drones and cruise missiles at Israel in unprecedented attack. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/13/israel-under-fire-as-iran-launches-extensive-drone-strikes

Tanyos, F., Tabachnick, C., & Reals, T. (2024, April 14). Israel says Iran’s missile and drone attack largely thwarted, with “very little damage” caused — CBS News. Www.cbsnews.com. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-launches-drone-attack-toward-israel-idf-says/