Revelio on Macron: Does Europe Really Aim for the Third Pole?
By Oktavianus Bima Saputra
On the 5th of April, French President Emmanuel Macron flew to Beijing to hold a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping. During his three-day state visit, he was joined by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in addressing Europe’s views on various geopolitical issues, such as China’s position in the Eastern Europe conflict, their expansive political influence in modern-day Europe, and political upheaval in the Taiwan Strait. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, this meeting can be seen as a catalyst to push China even further into containing Russia’s offensive – something that Beijing has been quite reluctant to do because of its close ties with Moscow. While some may see Macron and von der Leyen’s joint visit as a sign of a unified Europe front at the dawn of 21st-century power politics, others remain sceptical. Thus, does it, for better or worse, symbolize the inclination of a strong Europe in today’s fluctuating political constellation? Does Europe really aim for the third pole?
Reflecting on today’s context, I would want to emphasize that their lack of cohesion may be the most significant barrier to them achieving an equivalent degree of hegemony as the other major powers – the U.S. and China. After meeting with Xi and von der Leyen, Macron gave an interview indicating his resentment towards Europe’s political status quo. According to Sorgi (2023), Macron criticized the lack of autonomy that Europe has over its political agenda-setting and blamed the over-reliance on the U.S. as the culprit, especially in the context of Taiwan’s independence. In the same interview, he even encouraged his fellow European leaders to dig themselves out of the prolonged conflict in the Taiwan Strait and leave the matter to Washington and Beijing. According to Rao (2022), the birth of this paradigm mostly came from the much-awaited realization of the continent’s contemporary security state, in which Europe could no longer rely on NATO. To be strategically autonomous is what Macron has envisioned and emphasized over and over again in his tenure as President of France. Instead of just becoming «vassals» during a geopolitical crisis, Europe could be the Third Pole – after the U.S. and China – with a say in determining the end result (Rascouet, 2023).
However, compelling it may sound, Macron’s visionary idea also exposes Europe’s fragile and fractured political nature. Over the years, the continent has been balancing on a tightrope, with Washington and Beijing pulling hard on each side. Consequently, Macron’s controversial remarks sparked a ferocious debate among those who support Europe’s independent approach and those who primarily value close ties with either the U.S. or China. One of the loudest voices of resistance came from the chair of the European Parliament’s China Delegation, Reinhard Butiköfer, who judged Macron’s vision as almost utopian-like (Rankin, 2023). The main problem was that there was little to no imagination about what Europe should look like without U.S. or China’s influence in critical aspects such as economy, politics, and security. Hence, when Macron proposed his controversial idea, he got battered for claiming it was the aspiration of the whole European continent. The absence of much-needed consolidation might just be the last dagger to put Macron’s visionary ideas to rest.
On a larger scale, his Europe-centric remarks also jeopardized the transatlantic relationship. In response to Macron’s interview, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. could also reciprocally abandon the war in Eastern Europe and give the Europeans a chance to conclude the war by themselves (Vinocur, 2023). Weighing in on how much the course of the war has been determined by U.S. military aid, a sudden termination will have a disastrous effect on Ukraine’s survival rate against Russia’s offensive. Furthermore, the timing couldn’t be worse. Macron’s interview was given when China still has unresolved human rights issues in Xinjiang and is in the middle of an aggressive campaign to justify its actions in the Taiwan Strait. Alas, those who oppose Macron’s idea – that the continent should not be driven or shaped by U.S. interests – saw his statements as a ridiculous attempt to turn a blind eye to Beijing’s flaws. One might say it was an insensitive appeasement to the main adversary.
In times of conflict and uncertainty, Macron’s idea of self-reliance might just prove detrimental to Europe’s integrity due to its inherent polarized characteristics. Not to mention, crucial variables, such as each state’s national interests and their over-reliance on Beijing and Washington, have created a structure too complex to be changed overnight. On that note, it might not be the right time for Europe to challenge for the third pole. Lastly, in the writer’s opinion, the war between Russia and Ukraine might just have revealed to the international community how frail the political stability and security in nowadays Europe are. Given this perilous situation, its leaders might have to find a way to thrive inside the contemporary system – under the U.S. and Chinese leadership – instead of projecting a false, ego-driven depiction of power.
References
Rankin, J. (2023, April 10). Macron sparks anger by saying Europe should not be “vassal” in US-China clash. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/10/emmanuel-macron-sparks-anger-europe-vassal-us-china-clash
Rao, S. (2022). The Idea of Strategic Autonomy as Pushed by Emmanuel Macron: Key to EU’s Strategic Performance. Diplomatist. https://diplomatist.com/2022/01/18/the-idea-of-strategic-autonomy-as-pushed-by-emmanuel-macron-key-to-eus-strategic-performance/
Rascouet, A. (2023, April 9). France’s Macron Urges Europe Strategic Autonomy Amid US-China Tension. Bloomberg.com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-09/macron-says-europe-must-develop-its-own-autonomy-separate-from-us
Sorgi, G. (2023, April 11). EU: Macron and von der Leyen were united in the room with China’s Xi. POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-says-macron-von-der-leyen-were-united-in-china-beijing-taiwan-mamer-unilaterally-change/
Vinocur, N. (2023, April 10). Brussels Playbook: Macron “unfollows” Washington – Ukraine’s spring surprise – ChatGPT meets Europe. POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/macron-unfollows-washington-ukraines-spring-surprise-chatgpt-meets-europe/
