Rafah Is Screaming! : Israel’s Invasion Plan in Southern Gaza as the Endgame of the Ceasefire Deal

By Debby Salsabila

Rafah is a city inhabited by more than 1.2 million people in southern Gaza and borders directly with Egypt. Since Hamas’ retaliation on October 7, Rafah has become a city for Gazans to seek shelter and avoid Israeli forces. However, Israel reportedly started to shift their focus to the southern city. Benjamin Netanyahu —the Israeli Prime Minister— told the Biden administration that they have been preparing for a large-scale invasion on Rafah 'with or without' the recent potential ceasefire and hostage release deal (Shamala, 2024). However, the Israeli invasion of Rafah seems to have come sooner. On May 2, Israeli airstrikes killed several refugees in Rafah city, including children and injured adults (Elhelou et al., 2024). This attack implies a strong Israeli commitment to launch a large-scale invasion as soon as possible. So, what exactly are Israel's intentions and how is the international community responding to the devastating plan?
Antonio Guterres, the current UN Secretary-General, urged Israel to halt its attack and invasion plan on Rafah. This urging considers the impact of an invasion that could become an unbearable escalation (France 24, 2024). Not only that, all members of the UN Security Council also opposed the invasion operation against Rafah by encouraging all powerful countries to participate to prevent it, including the United States. The US participation was expressed by Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, to Netanyahu during his visit to Tel Aviv on May 1 (Pamuk, 2024). Explicitly, the Biden administration responded that Israel had no plans and methods to protect civilians in this operation so it would certainly be the next tragedy in Gaza. They believe such a large operation is not necessary to deal with Hamas. Moreover, Israel claimed that the operation was only aimed at eliminating four Hamas battalions based in Rafah (Pamuk, 2024). However, this claim has prompted skepticism that Israel is attempting a massive displacement of 1.2 million Gazans from Rafah to an unspecified location, instead of terminating Hamas.
Numerous diplomatic resolutions have been conducted to prevent escalating into a ‘bloodbath’. Egypt, one of the mediators, conducted a potential agreement on a ceasefire and hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas (Sullivan, 2024). Not only gaining external support from other countries, the ceasefire talks also gained internal support. Reportedly, politicians and stakeholders of the Netanyahu administration also demanded to halt the invasion internally. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister of Israel, warned the prime minister to suspend the large-scale plan (Sullivan, 2024). It implies that Netanyahu will have to try to build a coalition with other parties if Israel's right-wing parties turn against him due to the invasion plan.
However, the humanitarian crisis in Rafah no longer depends on the negotiation of both sides. The ceasefire consensus being pursued by Egypt is not appealing to Netanyahu. This is indicated by Netanyahu's earlier statement which implies that the ceasefire agreement and hostage exchange are no longer the basis to stop the invasion. Thus, the upcoming Israel invasion plan can devastate Gaza more to the ground.

Referensi:

Banko, E., Berg, M., & Seligman, L. (2024, May 3). Israel briefs US on plan to move Gazans ahead of Rafah invasion. POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/03/israel-gazans-rafah-invasion-00156024
Elhelou, T. E., Saifi, Z., & Kareem, K. (2024, May 2). Israeli airstrike on Rafah refugee camp in Gaza kills boy, 4, and his sister, 2. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/01/middleeast/israeli-airstrike-rafah-refugee-camp-intl-latam/index.html
Pamuk, H. (2024, May 2). Blinken says US cannot support Rafah assault without humanitarian plan. Www.google.com; REUTERS. https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-blinken-set-push-netanyahu-sustained-aid-into-gaza-2024-05-01/%23:~:text%3D%2522We%2520cannot%252C%2520will%2520not%2520support
Shamala, R. (2024, April 30). Netanyahu says Israel will invade Rafah “with or without deal” with Hamas. Www.aa.com.tr. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/netanyahu-says-israel-will-invade-rafah-with-or-without-deal-with-hamas/3206301
Sullivan, B. (2024, April 30). Israel will invade Gaza’s Rafah “with or without” a hostage deal, Netanyahu says. NPR; NPR. https://www.npr.org/2024/04/30/1248276817/israel-invade-gaza-rafah-hostage-deal-netanyahu