Oppenheimer’s Anxiety Proven: Russia’s Nuclear Apocalypse Threat in Plain Sight

by Raafi

‘Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.’ The famous quote by ‘Father of the Atom’ J Robert Oppenheimer, taken from the Bhagavad-Gita, has been widely dispersed after Christopher Nolan’s film Oppenheimer was released worldwide on July 21, 2023 (Temperton, 2023). The story of the American physicist who led the Manhattan Project to build an atomic bomb during World War II offers an opportunity to reinvigorate the discourse around the nuclear threat, which remains relevant today as the world still lives in the shade of nukes and bombs. In the end, Oppenheimer’s anxiety proved true: the discovery of the atomic bomb set the superpowers in the race to develop the most potent weapon in the name of national security.

The risk is further heightened by the ongoing heat war between Russia and Ukraine (UN, 2023), which leaves the world facing the same moral and political conundrum as Oppenheimer faced on how to deal with the weapons of mass destruction threat. On March 23, the Russian Federation’s Deputy Chairman of the Security Council warned that the «nuclear apocalypse» was «getting closer.» (Isachenkov, 2023). This warning – however vague – is one of numerous dangerous rhetoric issued by Moscow officials since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia in early 2022, threatening the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and the NATO states supporting Kyiv. While many believe Russia’s nuclear threats are only «cheap talk» (Giles et al., 2022), I argue that Moscow’s blusters are worth considering as Russia’s plausible messages rather than mere bluffs in response to the West’s continued support for Ukraine.

Before deep-diving in, it is crucial to understand the objective context of why Russia initiated the «nuclear apocalypse» threat in the first place. Putin’s ambition for the glory of Russia’s status and identity drives him to feel obligated to protect Moscow and disputed territories, even if it costs sweat and blood. Like lately, Russia deployed several of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, closer to Ukraine and on NATO’s doorstep, the first time since the end of the Cold War that Russian nuclear devices have been stationed outside its territory (Michta, 2023). Although Belarus remains independent, it depicts a significant escalation that Belarus has become part of Russia’s complete geopolitical and nuclear bargaining ship against the West (US, NATO, and alliances). Once again, Russia exerts immense pressure on the West. Nuclear threats – even radical and frequent ones – matter in two essential ways. Sukin (2023), in her research, found that an organized and comprehensive examination of threats might still deliver valuable insights. First, the collective content of threats reveals the messenger’s international security perception. In particular, states use nuclear threats to draw borders on issues they are concerned about most. When contextualized in the Russia-Ukraine War, Russia’s nuclear threat clearly indicates the fears for Russia’s security and rarefied glory, as well as the significant priorities they intend to pursue. These include dissuading the establishment of a «no-fly zone» over Ukraine and preventing the expulsion of Russian troops in disputed areas (Bastasin, 2023). Second, the frequency of threats provides the messenger’s level of intent to take assertive action. The greater the volume of Russian threats, the greater the probability that Russia will confront military provocations. Such moves could arise in the form of continued high-risk nuclear policies or further offensives in Ukraine and other disputed territories, including the use of restricted nuclear weapons.

Despite Ukraine’s strong support from the Western alliance (Gramer, 2023), there is a potential that Putin will take a bloody-but-worthy road to victory to destroy Ukraine as a state and nation. The prospect of a Russian defeat could escalate tensions, possibly even the use of catastrophic nuclear weapons, as Moscow has threatened (Jenkins, 2023). However, in the near future, I tend to believe that the escalating prompt posed by Russia is unlikely to occur since Putin has limitations in initiating the nuclear strike. Not because of the immeasurable devastation a nuclear attack would cause but because it would marginalize Russia in the eyes of world powers outside the West – Russia will become a detrimental asset to Beijing, New Delhi, Riyadh, and other capitals. Putin may be a psychopath, but he is not suicidal. International pressure will force Putin to reconsider his attitude towards Ukraine and Russia’s behavior vis-a-vis the international community as a whole or even spark a regime change in Russia. There is always the light at the end of the tunnel – thanks to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – as nuclear weapons have fallen from about 65,000 in the mid-1980s to approximately 12,500 today (United Nations, 2023). After all, Russia’s decision to launch nuclear weapons will not be a matter of elites debating in Moscow but of an individual named Putin. Moscow should undoubtedly understand Gorbachev’s crucial pledge that nuclear war is not and must never be a winner-take-all proposition. Just like Oppenheimer once said, «We know the world will not be the same. Some people laughed, some people cried. Most people are silent.» In one way or another, I think we have all imagined the world that way.

References

Bastasin, C. (2023). The Talbott Papers on Implications of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/tags/the-talbott-papers-on-implications-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

Giles, K., Boulègue, M., Jonnson, O., Lanoszka, A., & Stoicescu, K. (2022). Myth 6: “Russia’s Nuclear Threats are Real and Should be Taken Literally.” Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/07/myths-and-misconceptions-around-russian-military-intent/myth-6-russias-nuclear-threats-are

Gramer, R. (2023). Russia’s Nuclear Option Hangs Over Ukraine and NATO. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/11/nato-summit-russia-nuclear-ukraine-deterrence/

Isachenkov, V. (2023). Russia’s Security Chief Blasts West, Dangles Nuclear Threats. AP NEWS. https://apnews.com/article/medvedev-nuclear-putin-arrest-warrant-germany-ukraine-6dcde92e06f41a7c5cb7386f7939df33

Sukin, L. (2022). Why “Cheap” Threats Are Meaningful: Threat Perception and Resolve in North Korean Propaganda. International Interactions, 48(5), 1 – 32. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2068542

Temperton, J. (2023). “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds”. The Story of Oppenheimer’s Infamous Quote. Wired.co.uk; WIRED UK. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/manhattan-project-robert-oppenheimer

United Nations. (2023). Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use Higher Than at Any Time Since Cold War, Disarmament Affairs Chief Warns Security Council | UN Press. Press.un.org. https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15250.doc.htm